The Ultimate 2022 Cannabis Industry Forecast Roundup

Does it feel like everyone is clairvoyant these days? There’s something about the start of a new year that makes everyone want to grab a crystal ball and peer into the beyond. Your inbox might be as full of prognostications for 2022 as ours has been—in fact, one or two of them might be our own 10 predictions for cannabis marketing trends this year or Ricardo Baca’s forecast for where the cannabis industry is headed. But there’s nothing wrong with a little prophecy and divination between friends, especially when you’re trying to make the best decisions possible for your cannabusiness.

On the other hand—we’re all busy and it can be a little overwhelming (perhaps, even slightly annoying) to be inundated with so many different predictions for the year ahead. That’s why we decided to round up the top trending 2022 cannabis predictions we’ve seen so far. From Cannabis Business Times to CNBC, New Frontier Data to The Seattle Times and more, here are the 10 cannabis industry predictions for 2022 that we’ve seen dominating forecast lists:

1. Federal legalization won’t happen this year.

We know, we know—sad trombone. But despite various bills related to cannabis making their way through Congress in 2021, it's unlikely full federal legalization will move forward this year. Instead, keep your eye on how the House might attempt to push the SAFE Banking Act forward in 2022. Both new legislation and broader political backing for cannabis across the aisle will be necessary for full legalization to gain momentum and get across the finish line in a few years. (Forbes, Ganjapreneur)

2. Unlicensed legacy cannabis producers will continue to compete with legal businesses.

Regulated markets across the country will continue to compete with the unregulated market. Although expanding numbers of licensed dispensaries opening in places like Los Angeles may start tipping the scales in favor of regulated operators, other markets still face challenges like high taxes, too few stores and sheer force of habit. (Forbes, Los Angeles Times)

3. Public consumption lounges will be in demand as part of a larger experiential trend.

As the pandemic winds down and public life resumes with more confidence, cannabis consumers hungry for novelty and togetherness will be seeking out public consumption lounges and wellness experiences that incorporate both CBD and THC. (Forbes, Los Angeles Times)

Grasslands’ own Ricardo Baca also recently shared some thoughts on the public consumption lounge trend with Rolling Stone.

4. Cannabis research will further expand.

Scientists are finally delving deeper into studies on cannabis and its efficacy for a variety of medical and wellness applications. The DEA is allowing a fresh crop of federally authorized cannabis manufacturers to grow plants for research (up until now there’s been a monopoly on such research granted to the University of Mississippi of all places). It will be interesting to see how this new wealth of findings will impact the FDA’s appraisal of CBD, particularly following California’s October legalization of the cannabinoid in cosmetics, dietary supplements, food and beverages. (Veriheal, The Seattle Times, Leafly)

5. Potency cap campaigns will continue to dog the industry.

Industry opponents will continue to fight for regulations that limit the amount of THC that can be sold in any given cannabis product. If they succeed, it could drive more consumers back to legacy cannabis producers in lieu of neutered regulated marijuana products. (WeedWeek, Grasslands)

6. Republicans cozy up to cannabis.

Federal legalization isn’t likely to push through in 2022, but more and more Republicans will publicly back cannabis, beginning with the midterm elections. That will contribute to the overall momentum from both political parties to end federal prohibition sooner rather than later. (Cannabis Business Times, WeedWeek, Marijuana Times)

7. The hemp market will continue to boom.

Hemp will continue to grow as a sector in its own right, especially as demand for products like Delta8 increases—though this could lead to added scrutiny. (CNBC, New Frontier Data, Forbes, Leafly, Ganjaprenuer, Cannabis Business Times)

8. Weed delivery is here to stay.

Cannabis delivery and e-commerce became very popular during the pandemic. These options will continue to be in demand with consumers and offered by more and more dispensaries, even after the latest COVID wave subsides. (Grasslands, Ganjaprenuer)

9. Prepare for interstate commerce.

There are more adjacent legal states than ever, and it’s creating a huge incentive for states to begin preparing for interstate cannabis markets. States with well-established cannabis markets will begin working together to align cannabis regulations across their borders in preparation for eventual federal reform. (WeedWeek, Marijuana Times)

10. The consolidation surge will continue.

Mergers and acquisitions show no signs of slowing down, ushering in an era of even bigger cannabis companies. (Los Angeles Times, Ganjaprenuer, Cannabis Business Times, FlowerHire, MJBiz Daily, Reuters)